Chance and uncertainty

Riddles that sharpen probabilistic intuition and decision-making under uncertainty.

The thousand poisoned bottles

Level 5 Β· Expert Β· ●●●●●

You have 1000 bottles of wine. One of them is poisoned. One drop from the poisoned bottle kills a rat in exactly 24 hours. You have 10 lab rats. How much tim...

The hundred numbered boxes

Level 4 Β· Advanced Β· ●●●●○

There are 100 prisoners numbered 1 to 100. In a room there are 100 closed boxes, also numbered 1 to 100. Inside each box is a piece of paper with a number fr...

The hundred prisoners with hats

Level 4 Β· Advanced Β· ●●●●○

There are 100 prisoners in line. They randomly put a blue or red hat on each one. Each prisoner can see the hats of everyone in front of him, but not his own...

The light bulb room

Level 4 Β· Advanced Β· ●●●●○

There are 100 prisoners. Each day, the guard chooses one at random and takes it to a room with a light bulb (with on/off switch). The prisoner can flip the s...

The Monty Hall Problem

Level 4 Β· Advanced Β· ●●●●○

You are in a contest with three closed doors. Behind one there is a car (prize), behind the other two there are goats. You choose a door (let's say door 1)....

The envious dice

Level 4 Β· Advanced Β· ●●●●○

Four special dice: A: 4, 4, 4, 4, 0, 0 B: 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3 C: 6, 6, 2, 2, 2, 2 D: 5, 5, 5, 1, 1, 1 You choose a die first. The dealer then chooses another di...

The last passenger

Level 4 Β· Advanced Β· ●●●●○

An airplane has n seats ( n\ge 2 ) and n passengers with assigned seats. Passenger 1 loses his card and sits in a random seat. From passenger 2 onwards: if y...

White balls in two boxes

Level 4 Β· Advanced Β· ●●●●○

You have 50 white balls and 50 black balls. You must distribute them in two boxes, complying with: each box has at least one ball. Then this experiment is do...

The two-sided coin

Level 1 Β· Starter Β· ●○○○○

There are two coins in a bag: Coin A: has a face on both sides. Coin B: it is normal (heads and tails). You pull out a coin at random, flip it and it comes u...

The traffic light that reprograms itself

Level 1 Β· Starter Β· ●○○○○

An experimental traffic light has three lights: red ( R ), yellow ( A ), and green ( V ). Every minute, the state of the next minute is calculated like this:...

The urn bet

Level 5 Β· Expert Β· ●●●●●

Initial urn: 1 red and 1 blue ball. In each turn: a ball is drawn at random, is returned to the urn, and an extra ball of the same color is added. After n tu...

Las 100 monedas a ciegas

Level 3 Β· Intermediate Β· ●●●○○

Hay 100 monedas sobre una mesa. Sabes que exactamente 20 estΓ‘n cara arriba y 80 cara abajo, pero estΓ‘s completamente a oscuras. Puedes separar las monedas en...

La ΓΊltima bola

Level 3 Β· Intermediate Β· ●●●○○

En una urna hay bolas blancas y negras. Repetidamente extraes dos bolas: si son del mismo color, retiras ambas y metes una negra; si son de distinto color, r...

Los cuatro prisioneros y el muro

Level 4 Β· Advanced Β· ●●●●○

Cuatro prisioneros (A, B, C y D) estΓ‘n alineados. Hay un muro entre C y D. A ve a B y C. B ve a C. C y D solo ven el muro. Se reparten 4 sombreros: 2 negros...